Florida
- Since peaking at 15,300 new cases on July 12, the number of new cases has been declining. Over the past week ending July 24, the average number of new cases has declined 9.6%, falling to 10,724 new daily cases compared to 11,865 cases the week before.
- The percentage of tests that were positive has leveled-off. The positivity rate (over a 7-day average) reached its highest level of 19.9% on July 11. Since then, the rate has declined but it remains elevated at 19.1%.
- As expected, the average number of daily deaths has risen with the number of new cases. Over the last week ending July 24, the average number of daily deaths has increased 20.8%, rising to 122 deaths per day compared to 101 deaths the week before.
- Florida began reporting C19 hospitalizations on July 10. Since then, the number of patients in the hospital increased 32% to 9,200 patients on July 24. However, this number is down 4% from a high of 9,520 patients on July 21.
- While the number of deaths (a lagging indicator) is increasing, the number of new cases, the positivity rate and the number hospitalizations have all decreased over the last week.
- One additional factor to consider is the slowdown in testing. Testing backlogs of more than 7 days are being reported by the testing labs. The decline in new cases and leveling-off of positivity could be a function of this slowdown. The number of hospitalizations is a better indicator of the current trend. This is an important number to watch over the next week.
 |  |
Texas
- Texas hit a peak of 14,916 new cases on July 17. While the overall trend looks flat over the last week, the number of new cases is now declining. Over the past week ending July 24, the average number of new cases has declined 3.4%, falling to 8,893 new daily cases compared to 9,210 cases the week before.
- The percentage of tests that were positive is clearly trending lower. The positivity rate (over a 7-day average) reached its highest level of 18.8% on July 12 and has declined 26.6% to 13.8% on July 24.
- The average number of daily deaths continues to increase. Over the last week ending July 24, the average number of daily deaths has increased 60.9%, rising to 140 deaths per day compared to 87 deaths the week before.
- The number of C19 has leveled off relative to the number of new cases. Since passing 10,000 C19 patients in the hospital on July 10, there are currently 10,893 C19 patients. While this is an increase, the growth rate over this period was on July 24. However, this number is down 4% from a high of 9,520 patients on July 21.
- While the number of deaths (a lagging indicator) is increasing, the number of new cases, the positivity rate and the number hospitalizations have all decreased over the last week.
- One additional factor to consider is the slowdown in testing. Testing backlogs of more than 7 days are being reported by the testing labs. The decline in new cases and leveling-off of positivity could be a function of this slowdown. The number of hospitalizations is a better indicator of the current trend. This is an important number to watch over the next week.
 |  |
California
- California cases began rising during the 2nd and 3rd week of June, and have been steadily rising since. It hit a high of 12,807 new cases on July 22 followed by 12,040 on July 23.
- While the average positivity rate has been increasing since June 23, California’s positivity rate has remained below 10% during the 2nd wave. This is in sharp contrast to FL, TX and AZ which have all had positivity rates greater than the high teens. California’s average positivity rate reached a peak of 8.4% on July 12 followed by a decline. Since July 18, the rate has increased back to 8.0%.
- Between June 1 to July 8, daily deaths averaged 62. Since July 8, average deaths have increased to 102 per day. Hospitalizations have increased but at a more controlled rate. Current hospitalizations as of July 24 were 8,820, an increase of 4.4% over the week before. As can be seen in the chart below, California’s daily death and hospitalization charts do not show the rapid increases as seen in FL, TX and AZ.
- Overall, the situation in California bears a close watch. Gov Newsom implemented a second shut down of bars and restaurants on July 13, so it will be worth watching whether or not the trends improve.
 |  |
Arizona
- Arizona hit a peak of 4,877 new cases on July 1, and the average number of new cases leveled-off between July 1 and July 14. The number of new cases has declined since. Since 24, the average number of new cases declined 22.7% to 2,540.
- The percentage of tests that were positive is clearly trending lower. The positivity rate (over a 7-day average) reached its highest level of 18.8% on July 12 and has declined 26.6% to 13.8% on July 24.
- The average number of daily deaths continues to increase. Over the last week ending July 24, the average number of daily deaths has increased 60.9%, rising to 140 deaths per day compared to 87 deaths the week before.
- The number of C19 hospitalizations has leveled off relative to the number of new cases. Since passing 10,000 C19 patients in the hospital on July 10, there are currently 10,893 C19 patients. While this is an 8.6% increase, the daily growth rate over this period was only 0.6%.
- Arizona, which has been in the national spotlight for the last month, is clearly showing signs of cooling off. New cases peaked more than two weeks ago and the number of hospitalizations has been trending lower for the last week. The growth rate in new deaths has slowed down as well. The only trend that is of concern is the recent uptick in positivity. After trending lower since July 10, the average rate began increasing again on July 18. This contrast to the number of new cases is worth watching during the coming week.
 |  |
Source: Worldometer and The Covid Tracking Project