Top 5 States in Cases, Deaths, Hospitalizations, ICU Patients & Positivity (2/2)

Observations

• Positivity trends continue to improve. Nineteen states are now below the 5% threshold deemed safe to reopen.
• Hospitalizations have fallen 15% during the last week and the number of hospitalized patients fell below 100,000 for the 4th straight day.
• ICU patients fell 11% during the last week and reached their lowest level since 11/28/20.

Positivity Trends

• The US Positivity Rate fell to 8.0% on 2/2, the lowest level since 11/8/20. Nineteen states are now reporting at or below the 5% threshold determined to safely reopen.
  • Nine states reported higher positivity rates over the last week (-4 states since 1/26). 
  • PA leads the US with an average of 32.3% of all tests resulting positive
  • Zero states: 7-day positivity rates greater than 40% (unch since 1/26)
  • One state (PA): 7-day positivity rates greater than 30% (-6 since 1/26)
  • Six states (IA, ID, KS, AL, KY, SD: 7-day positivity rates greater than 20% (-10 since 1/26)
  • Nineteen states: 7-day positivity rates less than 5% (+15 since 1/26)
  • In total, 31 states have 7-day positivity rates greater than 5% (-15 since 1/26)

Hospitalization Trends

• Hospitalizations declined 14.8% last week to 92,880 patients. This represents the lowest level since 11/28/20 and the 4th straight day of fewer than 100,000 patients. 
  • Zero states had increases of hospitalized patients of more than 10% in the past week (-3 since 1/26). Only VT saw an increase in patients (+1). 
  • 24 states have more than 1,000 hospitalized patients (-3 since 1/26).
  • 49 states saw decreases in the number of hospitalized patients over the past week. (+3 since 1/26).

Patients in ICU Trends

• The number of patients in the ICU declined 10.6% last week to 18,388 patients. This represents the lowest level since 11/28/20.
  • Four states (VT, WA, IA, MS) have seen an increase in the number of ICU patients since a week ago (-2 since 1/26).
  • 26 states have more than 100 patients in ICU, (-2 since 1/26).
  • 45 states saw decreases in the number of ICU patients over the past week (+16 since 1/26).

Cases & Tests

Worldwide Cases:  

• Total Cases = 104,384,587
• New Cases (7 day average) = 512,366

Observations:

• 7 day average of new cases has been declining since 1/11
• Since 1/11, 7 day average has decreased from 745,708 to 512,366, a decline of 31.3%

US Cases: 

• Total Cases = 27,027,347
• New Cases (7 day average) = 142,512
• Percentage of New Global Cases = 27.7%

Observations:

• 7 day average of new cases has been declining since 1/11
• Since, 1/11, the 7 day average has decreased from 254,999 to 142,512, a decline of 42.9%

2. Deaths

Worldwide Deaths: 

• Total Deaths = 2,262,226
• New Deaths (7 day average) = 13,704

Observations:

• 7 day average of new deaths has been declining since 1/26
• Since 1/26, the 7 day average has decreased from 14,401 to 13,704, a decline of approx. 5%

US Deaths: 

• Total Deaths = 457,856
• New Deaths (7 day average) = 3,177
• Percentage of Global New Deaths = 23.2%

Observations:

• 7 day average of new deaths has been declining since 1/26
• Since 1/26, the 7 day average has decreased from 3,439 to 3,177, a decline of approx. 7.6%

Latest Covid Surge Appears to Flame Out Even in Worst Hot Spots  

• Even in the most devastated U.S. counties, the latest C19 surge is receding, buying authorities time as they attempt to vaccinate about 330 million people.
• Recent hot spots including Webb County, Texas; Maricopa County, Arizona; and Greenville and Spartanburg counties in South Carolina have seen cases trend downward in the past week, according to USAFacts, a nonprofit statistics aggregator used by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
• Among the top-five hot spots with populations of at least 250,000, only Pinal County, Arizona, saw cases increase.

• The data is another sign of relief for the U.S. health-care system. The U.S. has been administering an average of 1.26 million doses of C19 vaccine per day in the past week, but just about 1.4% of the population has received the required two doses, according to the Bloomberg Virus Tracker. At the same time, the progress could be threatened by new Covid variants and the community’s inclination to prematurely ease up on safety practices.
• The U.S. posted 165,985 new C19 cases on Thursday, dropping the seven-day average to 162,157, the lowest since Dec. 1, according to Johns Hopkins University data.
• Deaths, a lagging indicator, remain high: The U.S. added 3,895 to the toll on Thursday, and the total is nearly 434,000, including Friday’s partial count from Johns Hopkins.
• According to Covid Tracking Project data:
  • The number of people hospitalized with C19 in Vermont rose 24% to 62 in the past week, making it the only state to see an increase.
  • Arizona still has the most people hospitalized per capita, but the numbers are falling.
  • The seven-day average of deaths, which lag cases by weeks, hit records in the U.S. Census Bureau’s South and West regions. It has been falling in the Northeast and Midwest.

Source: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-29/latest-covid-surge-appears-to-flame-out-even-in-worst-hot-spots

US Vaccinations

• The US CDC reported 49.94 million vaccine doses distributed and 32.22 million doses administered. The US has administered 64.5% of the distributed doses, which is an increase of more than 10 percentage points from Friday’s update (54.1%). In total, 26.02 million people (approximately 7.9% of the US population) have received at least 1 dose of the vaccine, and 5.93 million (1.8%) have received both doses. The US is now averaging 1.36 million doses administered per day, a 20% increase from the previous week. The breakdown of doses by manufacturer remains relatively even, with slightly more Pfizer/BioNTech doses administered (17.36 million; 54%) than Moderna (14.76 million; 46%).
• The CDC moved data for vaccination at long-term care facilities (LTCF) to its own dashboard. A total of 3.75 million doses have been administered through the Federal Pharmacy Partnership for Long-term Care Program*, covering 3.14 million individuals with at least 1 dose and 594,857 with 2 doses. The dashboard breaks down the doses by those administered to LTCF residents and those administered to staff. Based on the available data, approximately 60% of the doses have gone to residents and 40% to staff.

Source: Johns Hopkins COVID-19 Update